During the month of October, a lot of people (9,786 in Oct 2010) read my blog because of my blog post about possible Halloween costumes. Throughout the rest of the year, my brother is pretty much the only reader. So Dave, this one’s for you. Towards the end of my High School career (not sure exactly when), I did what everyone else in the state of Wisconsin does – I added Dave and I to the Green Bay Packers Season Ticket Waitlist. Ironically, in the days before stubhub and ebay, our Dad had a chance at some Packers tickets while he and our Mom lived in California for a few years. If he found a way to pick them up, today I’d probably be sitting in section 120, row 10. Roughly 30 years later, Dave and I got in on the ground floor of a 70,000 story building but the length of the season ticket waiting list has increased over the years. How long is the Packers Season Ticket Waitlist?
- In 2010 it was estimated to be 83,881
- In 2011 it was estimated to be 88,595
- In 2012 it was estimated to be 96,000
- In 2013 it was estimated to be 105,000
- In 2014 it was estimated to be 112,000
- In 2015 it was estimated to be 122,000
Every year, the Packers send Waitlist members a postcard to let you know where you stand on the list. I haven’t always tracked my progress but in wading through facebook posts and old e-mails to Dave about our status, I was able to dig up the following data.
|Season Ticket Waitlist Number||65,959||Data
|Estimated Year of Receiving Tickets||2082.5||2089.1||2095.2||2101.2||2094.6*||2094.4||2097.4|
*Assumes no other seating expansions
The linear trendline for this data, y = -1172.4x + 68238, has an inflated slope because of the 2013 7,641 seat expansion which resulted in ≈5,000 season ticket holders receiving tickets. This means a couple of things:
- Our true slope (excluding 2013) suggests an average decrease of 664.44 spots per year (not 1,172 spots/year as the linear trendline suggests).
- Finding the x-intercept (excluding 2013) suggests that our name will likely come up in ≈82.4 years (the year 2097.4).
- Winning clearly doesn’t help our cause. Unfortunately, an exponential trendline may provide a better fit but it’s just too depressing. I’m hoping that fluctuations in the Packers’ performance will smooth this out over time, making the linear trendline a better estimate. As a fan, however, I’m not sure I can handle fluctuations in their performance.
I’ll be sure to update this graph each year for the rest of my life…then pass it on to my grandchildren.
And for the record, I’m one spot ahead of Dave on the list.